Since the end of March, the Chinese Android mobile phone brand has revised down its sales forecast of 100 million mobile phones again, which will also impact 5G processor manufacturers Qualcomm and MediaTek. The mobile phone industry may be very cold in the second half of the year.
Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that since the end of March, China’s Android mobile phone brand has revised down its sales forecast of 100 million mobile phones again, which will also impact 5G processor manufacturers Qualcomm and MediaTek. The mobile phone industry may be very cold in the second half of the year.
Ming-Chi Kuo has a bad view of consumer electronics demand, especially the mobile phone supply chain of the Android camp. Guo Ming-chi once again warned that China’s mobile phone brand factories have placed orders for 270 million mobile phones this year. Among them, MediaTek has cut orders for 5G chips in the fourth quarter. %, the Qualcomm 8 series has also been reduced by 15%, and it seems that the subsequent old chips will be auctioned at a lower price.
The order adjustment of MediaTek and Qualcomm shows that market demand may not improve until next year. In other words, the revenue and profit estimates for the past three quarters will be further revised.
Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out when he investigated the supply chain at the end of March that the Chinese mainland mobile phone brand factories had reduced orders by 20%, or about 170 million units. At present, it is estimated that the shipments of Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, Transsion, and Honor are 160 million units, 160 million units, 115 million units, 70 million units, and 55 million units, respectively.
Two of the chip makers, MediaTek and Qualcomm, also lowered their orders for 5G chips during the peak season in the second half of the year. For low-end and mid-range products, MediaTek adjusted orders by 30-35% in the fourth quarter. However, Qualcomm has lowered orders for the high-end Snapdragon 8 series by about 10-15%. At present, the shipment estimates of the SM8475 and SM8550 remain unchanged. After the SM8550 is shipped, the existing 8 series will be reduced in price by 30-40% to facilitate inventory clearance.
In other components, shipments of camera modules (CCMs) and lenses for Android-branded mobile phones in China may decline by 20-30% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year. And the top five CIS (CMOS Image Sensor) suppliers of the Android brand in mainland China have a total inventory of more than 550 million pieces.
And when orders for Android brands in mainland China are greatly adjusted, Samsung also lowered its mobile phone shipment target this year by about 10% to 275 million units. Overall, Apple iPhone shipment momentum is still better than Android.
Ming-Chi Kuo believes that 5G chips and camera modules are all key components of mobile phones. This year, the number of mobile phone brands in mainland China has cut orders, which represents weak demand in mainland China, Europe and emerging markets. And because the lead time of 5G chips will be longer than that of general components, MediaTek and Qualcomm adjusted their orders at the end of the year, indicating that market demand may not improve until next year. In other words, the revenue and profit estimates for the past three quarters will also be further revised. .
Join T Kebang Facebook Fan Group